Kevin Selle
Wichita Falls, TX
Male, 55
I've been a broadcast meteorologist on television since the early 1990's. Happy to answer any questions about the weather or local TV news. Yes, I often wear sneakers on set just out of view of the camera.
Great question. A cold air event, like the current one, is a good bit less complicated than rain or snow. With a precipitation forecast there are more factors at play. In general a forecast gets fuzzier the further out it time you go. Broadly speaking the forecast starts with data gathered from weather balloons launched twice a day from about 900 sites around the world. That sounds like a big number but when you consider the size of the earth, and how much of it is covered by water, which is hard to launch a balloon from, that data is pretty sparse. The goal of the balloons is to take a snapshot of the atmosphere at a given moment. It is a fuzzy picture. Think of putting that fuzzy picture on a copy machine. The copy is fuzzier, then make a copy of a copy and so on. So the further out in time the more errors or changes that enter the forecast. Stay warm!
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Great question, Richard! Each storm and location is a little different. Much of the precipitation type is determined above the surface of the earth. The snowflakes form thousands of feet above the ground and stay frozen as they fall. A very shallow layer of air at the surface could be above freezing but not deep enough to melt the snow.
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Yup. Sure can. Cold air moving into an area, cold air advection, can drop the temperature. And something called evaporative cooling can happen when it is raining. The friction with the air caused by falling raindrops can transfer heat to the water vapor and cool the air as well. Great question!
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Complicated answer, Richard, but a good question. There are quite a few and I really can't give a number off the top of my head. Easily more than a dozen It is complicated because different models offer different solutions. Some are short range, some are longer range. Some are US based, others European and Canada and Japan. To further complicate the issue some models are run as "ensembles" meaning they are run from the basic initial data but small variations are introduced to give different solutions. The basic input data is collected twice a day from about 900 upper air sites, or weather balloons, launched twice a day, noon and midnight Greenwich mean time. The idea is to take a snapshot of the entire planet atmosphere at the same time. Also, more and more data, from satellites and radar for example, is now ingested into the models to varying degrees. A shorter answer is, on a regular day I'll look at three or four.
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Hi, Kim. Nope. The maximum sustained winds of any part of the storm (mostly likely near the eye) determine the designation of the entire storm. Harvey hit peak strength at Category 4 as it came ashore near Rockport, TX and the center never did cross Houston.
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Hi, Erin. I’d go to weather.gov (not .com). Click on your area of the map and it will take you to the local National Weather Service office and you’ll see phone and email on the bottom. Good luck.
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Great question, Jim. An Atlantic hurricane can come to Texas, and in a rare case New Mexico. The storms are guided by the upper atmospheric pattern of ridges and troughs. Imagine hills and valleys. The atmosphere is always in motion and a storm will take the easiest path, harder to climb a hill, easier to go through the valley. The general pattern during hurricane season has a hill over the Atlantic and storms will travel around the edge of the hill toward the valley in the eastern US, but remember the hills and valleys can change. Also, this year hurricanes from the Pacific have brought rain to NM and TX.
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